Same as Ever
Highlights
- I’ve learned an important trick: to develop foresight, you need to practice hindsight. —Jane McGonigal (Location 117)
- I once had lunch with a guy who’s close to Warren Buffett. This guy—we’ll call him Jim (not his real name)—was driving around Omaha, Nebraska, with Buffett in late 2009. The global economy was crippled at this point, and Omaha was no exception. Stores were closed, businesses were boarded up. Jim said to Warren, “It’s so bad right now. How does the economy ever bounce back from this?” Warren said, “Jim, do you know what the bestselling candy bar was in 1962?” “No,” Jim said. “Snickers,” said Warren. “And do you know what the bestselling candy bar is today?” “No,” said Jim. “Snickers,” Warren said. Then silence. That was the end of the conversation. (Location 127)
- Change captures our attention because it’s surprising and exciting. But the behaviors that never change are history’s most powerful lessons, because they preview what to expect in the future. Your future. Everyone’s future. No matter who you are, where you’re from, how old you are, or how much money you make, there are timeless lessons from human behavior that are some of the most important things you can ever learn. (Location 146)
- Amazon founder Jeff Bezos once said that he’s often asked what’s going to change in the next ten years. “I almost never get the question: ‘What’s not going to change in the next ten years?’ ” he said. “And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two.” Things that never change are important because you can put so much confidence into knowing how they’ll shape the future. Bezos said it’s impossible to imagine a future where Amazon customers don’t want low prices and fast shipping—so he can put enormous investment into those things. (Location 152)
- Philosophers have spent centuries discussing the idea that there are an infinite number of ways your life could play out, and you just happen to be living in this specific version. It’s a wild thing to contemplate, and it leads to the question: What would be true in every imaginable version of your life, not just this one? Those universal truths are obviously the most important things to focus on, because they don’t rely on chance, luck, or accident. (Location 164)
- One is highlighting this book’s premise—to base predictions on how people behave rather than on specific events. Predicting what the world will look like fifty years from now is impossible. But predicting that people will still respond to greed, fear, opportunity, exploitation, risk, uncertainty, tribal affiliations, and social persuasion in the same way is a bet I’d take. (Location 325)
- Every event creates its own offspring, which impact the world in their own special ways. It makes prediction exceedingly hard. The absurdity of past connections should humble your confidence in predicting future ones. (Location 335)
- The other thing to keep in mind is to have a wider imagination. No matter what the world looks like today, and what seems obvious today, everything can change tomorrow because of some tiny accident no one’s thinking about. Events, like money, compound. And the central feature of compounding is that it’s never intuitive how big something can grow from a small beginning. (Location 337)
- Risk Is What You Don’t See (Location 342)
- We are very good at predicting the future, except for the surprises—which tend to be all that matter. (Location 347)
- “Risk is what’s left over after you think you’ve thought of everything.” (Location 365)
- That’s the real definition of risk—what’s left over after you’ve prepared for the risks you can imagine. (Location 366)
- Two things can explain something that looks inevitable but wasn’t predicted by those who experienced it at the time: Either everyone in the past was blinded by delusion. Or everyone in the present is fooled by hindsight. We are crazy to think it’s all the former and none of the latter. (Location 385)
- Psychologist Daniel Kahneman says, “The idea that what you don’t see might refute everything you believe just doesn’t occur to us.” (Location 429)
- Nassim Taleb says, “Invest in preparedness, not in prediction.” That gets to the heart of it. (Location 442)
- Two, realize that if you’re only preparing for the risks you can envision, you’ll be unprepared for the risks you can’t see every single time. So, in personal finance, the right amount of savings is when it feels like it’s a little too much. It should feel excessive; it should make you wince a little. (Location 447)
- Expectations and Reality (Location 473)
- The first rule of happiness is low expectations. (Location 474)
- “If you only wished to be happy, this could be easily accomplished; but we wish to be happier than other people, and this is always difficult, for we believe others to be happier than they are.” (Location 482)
- There is no such thing as objective wealth—everything is relative, and mostly relative to those around you. It’s the path of least resistance to determining what life owes you and what you should expect. Everyone does it. Subconsciously or not, everyone looks around and says, “What do other people like me have? What do they do? Because that’s what I should have and do as well.” (Location 533)
- Money buys happiness in the same way drugs bring pleasure: incredible if done right, dangerous if used to mask a weakness, and disastrous when no amount is enough. (Location 538)
- If you look at the 1950s and ask, “What was different that made it feel so great?” this is at least part of your answer. The gap between you and most of the people around you wasn’t that large. It created an era when it was easy to keep your expectations in check because few people in your social circle lived dramatically better than you did. (Location 547)
- So the comparatively lower wages than those of today felt great because everyone else earned a lower wage too. The smaller homes felt nice because everyone else lived in smaller homes too. The lack of health care was acceptable because your neighbors were in the same circumstances. Hand-me-downs were acceptable clothes because everyone else wore them. Camping was an adequate vacation because that’s what everyone else did. It was the one modern era when there wasn’t much social pressure to increase your expectations beyond your income. Economic growth accrued straight to happiness. People weren’t just better off; they felt better off. (Location 553)
Same as Ever
Highlights
- I’ve learned an important trick: to develop foresight, you need to practice hindsight. —Jane McGonigal (Location 117)
- I once had lunch with a guy who’s close to Warren Buffett. This guy—we’ll call him Jim (not his real name)—was driving around Omaha, Nebraska, with Buffett in late 2009. The global economy was crippled at this point, and Omaha was no exception. Stores were closed, businesses were boarded up. Jim said to Warren, “It’s so bad right now. How does the economy ever bounce back from this?” Warren said, “Jim, do you know what the bestselling candy bar was in 1962?” “No,” Jim said. “Snickers,” said Warren. “And do you know what the bestselling candy bar is today?” “No,” said Jim. “Snickers,” Warren said. Then silence. That was the end of the conversation. (Location 127)
- Change captures our attention because it’s surprising and exciting. But the behaviors that never change are history’s most powerful lessons, because they preview what to expect in the future. Your future. Everyone’s future. No matter who you are, where you’re from, how old you are, or how much money you make, there are timeless lessons from human behavior that are some of the most important things you can ever learn. (Location 146)
- Amazon founder Jeff Bezos once said that he’s often asked what’s going to change in the next ten years. “I almost never get the question: ‘What’s not going to change in the next ten years?’ ” he said. “And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two.” Things that never change are important because you can put so much confidence into knowing how they’ll shape the future. Bezos said it’s impossible to imagine a future where Amazon customers don’t want low prices and fast shipping—so he can put enormous investment into those things. (Location 152)
- Philosophers have spent centuries discussing the idea that there are an infinite number of ways your life could play out, and you just happen to be living in this specific version. It’s a wild thing to contemplate, and it leads to the question: What would be true in every imaginable version of your life, not just this one? Those universal truths are obviously the most important things to focus on, because they don’t rely on chance, luck, or accident. (Location 164)
- One is highlighting this book’s premise—to base predictions on how people behave rather than on specific events. Predicting what the world will look like fifty years from now is impossible. But predicting that people will still respond to greed, fear, opportunity, exploitation, risk, uncertainty, tribal affiliations, and social persuasion in the same way is a bet I’d take. (Location 325)
- Every event creates its own offspring, which impact the world in their own special ways. It makes prediction exceedingly hard. The absurdity of past connections should humble your confidence in predicting future ones. (Location 335)
- The other thing to keep in mind is to have a wider imagination. No matter what the world looks like today, and what seems obvious today, everything can change tomorrow because of some tiny accident no one’s thinking about. Events, like money, compound. And the central feature of compounding is that it’s never intuitive how big something can grow from a small beginning. (Location 337)
- Risk Is What You Don’t See (Location 342)
- We are very good at predicting the future, except for the surprises—which tend to be all that matter. (Location 347)
- “Risk is what’s left over after you think you’ve thought of everything.” (Location 365)
- That’s the real definition of risk—what’s left over after you’ve prepared for the risks you can imagine. (Location 366)
- Two things can explain something that looks inevitable but wasn’t predicted by those who experienced it at the time: Either everyone in the past was blinded by delusion. Or everyone in the present is fooled by hindsight. We are crazy to think it’s all the former and none of the latter. (Location 385)
- Psychologist Daniel Kahneman says, “The idea that what you don’t see might refute everything you believe just doesn’t occur to us.” (Location 429)
- Nassim Taleb says, “Invest in preparedness, not in prediction.” That gets to the heart of it. (Location 442)
- Two, realize that if you’re only preparing for the risks you can envision, you’ll be unprepared for the risks you can’t see every single time. So, in personal finance, the right amount of savings is when it feels like it’s a little too much. It should feel excessive; it should make you wince a little. (Location 447)
- Expectations and Reality (Location 473)
- The first rule of happiness is low expectations. (Location 474)
- “If you only wished to be happy, this could be easily accomplished; but we wish to be happier than other people, and this is always difficult, for we believe others to be happier than they are.” (Location 482)
- There is no such thing as objective wealth—everything is relative, and mostly relative to those around you. It’s the path of least resistance to determining what life owes you and what you should expect. Everyone does it. Subconsciously or not, everyone looks around and says, “What do other people like me have? What do they do? Because that’s what I should have and do as well.” (Location 533)
- Money buys happiness in the same way drugs bring pleasure: incredible if done right, dangerous if used to mask a weakness, and disastrous when no amount is enough. (Location 538)
- If you look at the 1950s and ask, “What was different that made it feel so great?” this is at least part of your answer. The gap between you and most of the people around you wasn’t that large. It created an era when it was easy to keep your expectations in check because few people in your social circle lived dramatically better than you did. (Location 547)
- So the comparatively lower wages than those of today felt great because everyone else earned a lower wage too. The smaller homes felt nice because everyone else lived in smaller homes too. The lack of health care was acceptable because your neighbors were in the same circumstances. Hand-me-downs were acceptable clothes because everyone else wore them. Camping was an adequate vacation because that’s what everyone else did. It was the one modern era when there wasn’t much social pressure to increase your expectations beyond your income. Economic growth accrued straight to happiness. People weren’t just better off; they felt better off. (Location 553)